Task 3.1: Policy Innovation. Without the results from the aforementioned objectives, attempts to identify policy innovations would be premature. We do recognize that incrementalism in policy change is the norm, although there are exceptions in the form of non-incremental bursts of policy adoption. Ideally, we would identify economic and political factors allowing non-incrementalism and thus provide stormwater flood-related relief to Chicago residents. For now, we acknowledge existing research on the connections between regional green open space with existing flood regulations. We also recognize how stormwater credit trading programs can embody green stormwater management strategies; several studies have already been conducted to assess the feasibility and the pilot study-based results of a stormwater credit trading program in the Chicago area.

Task 3.1.1: Economic Analysis. Extended cost-benefit analysis (ECBA) and cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) will be used to identify and measure the monetary and non-monetary cost and benefits of the previously identified policy alternatives. Our first task will be to identify specific outcomes and goals. Some may be obvious, such as preserving fiscal health for the municipality. Others will be based on a deeper understanding of the problem. For example, in places like Chicago with a flat topology, stormwater management successes in one area may lead to increased flooding in others. In this way, a single goal of “reducing flood risk/propensity in South Chicago” would fail in terms of providing a comprehensive understanding of the problem. We must also properly operationalize these goals. In terms of fiscal health, for example, one can measure the costs for maintaining green stormwater infrastructure (i.e. rain gardens) in order to maximize their efficiency and limit the potential for mosquito larvae. It is also essential that we quantify the benefits of green infrastructure for improved stormwater management, particularly on the south side of Chicago.

The extant research on flooding provides a number of possible measures that could qualify for a range of policy outcomes, ranging from hedonic modeling to show the effects of flooding on home prices, the effects of flooding on the labor market, effects on the insurance market, including the effects of government assistance on the flood insurance market, and the efficiency of modifying impervious surfaces. We will incorporate publicly available and novel datasets to support all measures, we will justify our approach by addressing the extant research on the average treatment effects of past and present stormwater management practices and policies, acknowledging the challenges of establishing causality via difference-in-difference analysis.

Task 3.1.2: Political Analysis. The role of politics in policymaking cannot be ignored, and the political analytical model will assess the feasibility of each policy option, including the status quo. Factors to consider will include the presence of cooptation, compromise, heresthetics, and symbols in how policymakers, planners, and other elites articulate their concerns about stormwater management. The successful implementation of urban stormwater policies will depend on the institutional arrangements used to pursue stormwater management. Using a socio-institutional network analysis (SNM) we will identify the goals and influence of different types of actors and describe the linkages among them in terms of information, capacity building and funding. We will analyze how goals have been framed and debated, but, given calls for policy planners to solicit input from marginalized communities when attempting to establish sustainable urban stormwater practices, we will establish which individuals or coalitions are driving the narrative and exerting influence. This approach will attend to claims that there is a dearth of research quantifying ecosystem services for socio-economically disadvantaged populations. Some have emphasized the community-building and job-creating and real estate value-preserving potential of such projects, but without accounting for heterogeneity in socio-economic factors.

We expect significant opportunities for there to be collective action in the form of interest group formation. Indeed, perceptions by municipal officials of how committed a city is to environmental protection is positively associated with engagement in policy making by environmental groups. To properly identify the nature of the political forces and interest group-oriented politics that influence the feasibility of each potential practice and policy, we will conduct in-person interviews with managers and key personnel from the following organizations: the Chicago City Council, the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago, the Clean Water Network, the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, Chicagoland Environmental Network, Delta Institute, the Illinois Senate Environment Committee, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. House Water Resources & Environmental Subcommittee of the Committee on Transportation & Infrastructure.

To account for conflicting values and interests, information flows, and variation in socioeconomics, a view that is consistent with research highlighting the importance of public perceptions regarding green stormwater infrastructure and the provision of adequate ecosystem services, we will conduct surveys of representative samples of the Chicago populace. Specifically, we will test for public acceptance of specific stormwater management practices and policies via survey experimentation. Indeed, we present here findings from our pilot study of the Chicago population based on a representative sample of South Chicago residents. These results, administered in a survey (IRB approval #IIT-2022-96) by Qualtrics in May 2022, show that residents identify infrastructure-based problems as a primary reason for stormwater flooding in their communities (see figure below). As justification for our focus on inequities in flooding, we also observe that South Chicago residents are more likely to believe that more affluent communities on the north side of Chicago have fewer stormwater management problems than those of their neighboring communities on the south side.

Task 3.2: Strategic planning. Finally, this project will identify which factors have been crucial for the real and prospective successes in Chicago. Strategic planning techniques (e.g, SWOT analysis) will be used to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats related to urban stormwater planning in Chicago and provide recommendations, particularly green infrastructure given its inherent value across communities. A stakeholder workshop will be held including representatives from the different environmental and social organizations to present the results of the project and explore future actions and next steps.